 The commercial real estate market was flying until it suddenly wasn’t. After more than a decade of growth we knew the day would come when the office market would weaken. What none of us saw coming was a black swan event like the coronavirus pandemic where a market that once favored landlords shifted to favoring tenants in just days.
Every business in the world is developing plans for coping with the sudden economic uncertainty. With no lead time companies have been forced into experimenting with employees working from home. Unfortunately for some companies and their employees the coronavirus outbreak has already led to layoffs and furloughs. After staffing cost, real estate is the largest expense for most businesses. At some point soon every company is going to look at their office lease obligation and ways for reducing that cost. The first step is to do your homework. Study your lease to understand what rights you may have to make lease changes. Audit your lease and operating expense history to evaluate if you have been overpaying. Consider bringing in a planner to right-size your space if operationally it no longer fits. Then, together with your tenant representative, work with your landlord. Share with your landlord that you are seeking rent relief and are considering several options to mitigate your lease obligation. Sublease If you need to downsize your current space, and provided your lease allows for it, listing your space on the sublease market is one way to reduce your rent cost. Companies that have suddenly found themselves with excess space are already listing their space for sublease and dropping sublease rates 20% to 30% to get their space filled quickly. Landlords want to avoid competing with multiple below market sublease listings for empty space in their buildings because a sudden flood of sublease inventory deflates the building’s overall rental rate. The possibility of another sublease in the building could also make your landlord more willing to work with you on restructuring your lease. Restructuring One of the tightly kept secrets in commercial real estate is that your lease obligation is negotiable. There are two variables in your rent cost calculation. Rate and rentable square footage (RSF). Both are negotiable by either a rate reduction or contraction (giveback). Most dual agency brokers will deny it but brokers that only represent tenants know when negotiating leverage shifts from landlords to tenants, landlords suddenly become more willing to consider restructuring lease obligations. Why? Because in uncertain economic times landlords know that no one will be standing in line to pay your current rental rate for the entirety of your empty office space. Even before the coronavirus pandemic hit the Bay Area sublease availability was on the rise and rent growth was slipping. When the commercial real estate market was flying it would be rare to find a landlord willing to consider restructuring your lease. That’s no longer the case. Termination You may not have looked at your lease agreement since the day it was executed but now is the time to see if you negotiated a termination right. Depending on the termination right you may have the ability to terminate the lease contract before the expiration of the lease term. Be aware that the landlord may maintain the right to sue for damages for early termination or charge a fee for early termination. So, given the shift in leverage from landlords to tenants, why isn’t your broker enthusiastic about assisting you in seeking rent relief? More than 90% of the commercial real estate brokers are dual agents, representing both landlords and tenants. This creates a built-in conflict of interest that few tenants understand and even fewer brokers discuss. No one would hire a lawyer who works for the other side. Yet, the equivalent happens every day when tenants work with commercial real estate brokers and firms that also represent landlords. It is in the best interest of brokers that represent landlords to keep perceived asking rates as high as possible and vacancy rates as low as possible. But, large amounts of below market sublease space softens the market. Otherwise, landlords and listing brokers would openly publish asking and actual rents on every direct and sublease space they list. In order to gain leverage and rent relief you need to first eliminate conflict of interest by woking with a broker that only represents tenants. If your broker or anyone in their office has listings in the market, they have a conflict of interest. Then, work together with your landlord and tenant representative to explore all options for mitigating your lease obligation – sublease, restructuring, and termination.  Tenants are reading and hearing conflicting data on today’s San Francisco office market that makes it difficult to determine if the office market bubble is about to burst or if the market is strong and growing stronger.
The Bay Area economy remains strong, direct vacancy is tight, and tenants are paying record high rents:
On the other hand, there are indicators that an office market bubble could be on the horizon.
Reading the Tea Leaves From a tenant’s perspective it’s important to understand what is causing these conflicting market conditions in order to leverage your advantages as a tenant in the current office market. Nearly every rapidly scaling tech company has a business plan that relies on headcount growth, which is why tech tenants like Dropbox, Micron Technology and Splunk are “banking” space in advance of hiring and are offering to sublet portions that are going unused for now. These unicorns are wisely looking to monetize their leased but unused space until they grow and are therefore creating large amounts of sublease space on the market. This monetization of banked space is not likely a leading indicator of an office market bubble. In fact, it presents below market opportunities and leverage for tenants willing to move into a sublease. So, given the below market rents for sublease space, why isn’t your broker enthusiastic about sublease space options? More than 90% of the commercial real estate brokers in San Francisco represent both landlords and tenants. This creates a built-in conflict of interest that few tenants understand and even fewer brokers discuss. No one would hire a lawyer who works for the other side. Yet, the equivalent happens every day when tenants work with commercial real estate brokers and firms that also represent landlords. It is in the best interest of brokers that represent landlords to keep perceived asking rates as high as possible and vacancy rates as low as possible. But, large amounts of below market sublease space softens the market. Otherwise, landlords and listing brokers would openly publish asking and actual rents on every direct and sublease space they list. A bigger reason your broker isn’t enthusiastic about sublease space options is brokers are sometimes paid a lower fee on subleases. And, a sublease transaction is often more complicated and difficult to negotiate than a direct space lease. So, more work and less commission make sublease options a lower priority for most commercial real estate brokers. Leverage Your Advantages In order to gain leverage on your office transaction you need to first eliminate conflict of interest. If your broker or anyone in their office has listings in the market, they have a conflict of interest. Make sure you are working with a tenant representative firm and not listing brokers. Next, explore all your options with your tenant representative. There are very real differences and trade-offs associated with each of your options - shared, co-working, sublease, direct, etc… If you decide to explore subleases be certain they fit your timeline and flexibility. Companies that are uncertain about long-term growth plans may desire shorter lease terms. In this case, sublease may be an option that would otherwise not be available in the direct lease market. You’ll definitely be able to find sublease space at below market rates but your trade-offs will include limited flexibility on tenant improvements, renewal options and financial liability.  In full-service gross office leases, landlords typically pass on a pro-rata share of operating expenses (OPEX) related to the tenant's occupancy of the space. In the most common office lease, tenants are only responsible for common area maintenance, utilities, property insurance, and property tax increases over the “base year” amount which is most often the year of the commencement date or the year following the commencement date.
Each year during Q1 you and your accounting department receive estimates of current year operating expenses as well as reconciliation of previous year actual operating expenses. What to Expect Since landlord’s pass through operating expenses to tenants they have little incentive to control these costs. For this reason, operating expenses almost always increase from year to year. You can view any OPEX category that increases less than 3% or 4% over the previous year as reasonable while anything over that should be explained by the landlord. Check the Math If the Landlord doesn’t itemize your charges be sure to ask for an itemized break down by category. Whenever an annual reconciliation hits your inbox without sufficient back up to verify expenses and calculations, it’s time to check the landlord’s math and determine if a lease audit is called for. Your broker can help you check the math and assess if you are being overcharged by your landlord and assist in recovering any overpayments. If your broker doesn’t have the time or interest to assist you it may be that their brokerage doesn’t exclusively represent tenants. The dirty little secret in office leasing is that most commercial real estate brokers represent both landlords AND tenants. This creates a built-in conflict of interest that few tenants understand and even fewer brokers discuss. So, if your broker or anyone else in their office represents landlords, you have a built-in conflict of interest. If your broker isn’t offering to assist in your annual OPEX reconciliation, it’s probably because they or someone in their firm also represents the landlord that overcharged you for your operating expenses.  Finding the right office space can be an exciting challenge for a business. Once you've made the decision to seek your first or your next office, your instinct may be to ask Siri, Alexa, or Google search to "find office space".
Your results will be dominated by listings in free databases of office space (Loopnet, 42Floors, Officspace.com...), paid advertising listings from coworking firms and flexible office providers (WeWork, Regus, Knotel, Servcorp...), and likely some listings from commercial office brokers that represent landlords. One of the biggest mistakes to avoid when looking for office space is not finding multiple, competitive alternatives. On the surface it may seem like your search has produced plenty of potential alternatives but in fact, the free databases, coworking and brokerage listings are populated and paid for by landlords and brokers representing landlords. Therefore, you are presented with the listings and information that benefit landlords and their brokers, not you the tenant. Not every available office space is included in the free databases because of the cost to brokers and landlords. And, listings that are included often only quote a range of asking rents or in tighter markets, asking rents may even be WITHHELD. Paid advertising listings from coworking firms and flexible office providers direct you to their websites to begin your deep dive into their plans, pricing, locations and FAQs. There is nothing wrong with asking Siri, Alexa, or Google to find office space for an overview of the market through the eyes of a landlord and their brokers. But, the results are not comprehensive, lack key information and don't represent the true market condition for office space. Consider hiring a broker that works exclusively as your tenant representative who will save you time normally spent researching space and provide the peace of mind that every opportunity in the market will be presented to you. Firms that specialize in tenant representation are only focused on finding value and multiple alternatives, many of which aren't found by asking Siri, Alexa, or Google search. In commercial office lease transactions fees for the tenant representative are paid by landlords, not tenants. Even though tenant representatives are paid by the landlord, they work exclusively for you and unlike Siri, Alexa, or Google, have a fiduciary duty to represent your needs in everything they do.  Blockchain is best known as the technology powering cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The "block" is digital information stored in the "chain" which is a public database. The blocks on the blockchain are made up of digital pieces of information:
In contrast, the commercial real estate (CRE) industry has historically isolated information that is essential for searching, selecting and negotiating office leases behind private brokerage in-house databases and an imperfect subscription-based industry database. Much like the travel industry prior to the Internet, the commercial real estate industry is extremely inefficient and lacks transparency. Standard operating procedure for commercial real estate brokers is to keep transaction information secret and centrally controlled for the purpose of creating competitive advantage. There is an intentional lack of transparency on the part of brokers representing landlords that increases the potential for inaccurate market information. But what if the data related to every office lease transaction and every property was held in an open and shared public blockchain database for all involved parties in a transaction? Technology-driven information transparency is one of the major disruptive forces on the horizon for commercial real estate and office leasing. Globally, venture-backed real estate tech companies raised $14 billion USD in 2019 Q1-Q2, a 309% increase from 2018 Q1-Q2. (Source: CREtech, Mid-Year Report, 2019) It is not a matter of if, but when. And when that day comes, you can count on an erosion of the lucrative fee structure in office leasing. The market will eventually demand transparency and the removal of information silos built and maintained by commercial real estate brokers and real estate database companies. Today, the huge commissions that brokers earn are largely justified by the existence of these silos. Eventually, all markets demand transparency and so too will tenants of commercial real estate. As market information becomes more freely accessible the leverage in an office leasing transaction will shift from listing brokers and landlords to tenants and tenant representatives. This new market landscape will empower tenants to demand more value from their broker than just sharing proprietary market data. That said, an office leasing transaction is much more complex than booking travel online. No two deal terms are the same just as no two spaces with the same square footage are the same just as no two landlords or buildings are the same. So, there will be a role for a middleman in office leasing, but it won’t be about sharing lease comps or asking rents. It will be about adding quality, value and services to the transaction. Brokers clinging to legacy business models and fee structures are likely to feel like travel agents in the '90s standing on the wrong set of tracks when the Internet train passed by. |
Archives
April 2023
Categories
All
|
RSS Feed
© 2022 CRONINCRE INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED